Trepp’s 2022 CRE Sentiment Survey: Partly Cloudy with a Chance of Recession
Between July 13 and August 1, 2022, Trepp polled more than 20,000 listeners, clients, and blog readers for their opinions on the near-term future of the commercial real estate (CRE) and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) markets. The results are contained in Trepp’s 2022 CRE Sentiment Survey. Here are four highlights and takeaways.
- 70% of respondents expect that the office sector will see the biggest increase in distress for the remainder of 2022.
- 83% of survey participants predict that within the next s6ix months, CRE/CMBS delinquencies will worsen.
- 58% of respondents predict that multifamily will have the most transaction activity within the next 6 months.
- 70% of survey participants reported they are in the office at least 3 days per week.
The full 16-page PDF is downloadable here.
Meet Me by the Fountain: An Inside History of the Mall
For any brands with a mall presence – as well as those looking to establish one – there’s a new book you might want to read before investing (or just for new insights into America’s malls): Meet Me by the Fountain: An Inside History of the Mall by design critic Alexandra Lange.
In an article in The New Republic, Jillian Steinhauer uses the book as a launching pad for an extended essay on the state of malls today, replete with choice tidbits and observations on how shopping malls came to be, how they evolved, and where they might be going – good information for brands considering setting up shop in them – or pulling out.
“The story of the mall, like so many quintessentially American things, begins with an immigrant,” notes Steinhauer. “The architect Victor Gruen (née Viktor Grünbaum) was an Austrian Jewish emigre who fled the Nazis in 1938; upon arriving in the United States, he began designing eye-catching shops and other commercial projects in a European modernist style. Visionary and ambitious, Gruen didn’t invent the mall whole cloth, but he did pioneer the form and help embed it firmly in the American landscape.”
To learn more, find the entire article here.
Wendy’s “Global Next Gen” Model Points the Way Forward for the #2 Burger Brand
The first location for Wendy’s new prototype is slated to open next spring in New Albany, Ohio, about 20 miles northeast of Wendy’s headquarters in Dublin, Ohio. The new design will include a dedicated pickup window for mobile orders, parking for delivery drivers, a galley-style kitchen design that runs from the front to the back of the restaurant, and many other changes that allow for staff to focus on taking and delivering customer orders. And for franchisees, it will reduce investment costs by about 10% and energy costs by about 6%, according to the company. In announcing the new design, CFO Gunther Plosch said, “Finally, we are embracing digital in our design.” To see renderings of the new design, visit this article in QSR magazine.
Why Does the WeWork Guy Get To “Fail Up” for $350 Million in PE Funding?
Adam Neumann, disgraced founder of shared office space company WeWork, has received $350 million from venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, its biggest check ever, for his newest venture, Flow, a residential real estate startup. While the specifics of the new company are still coming into focus, according to an article in Vox:
“What we do know is that Flow plans to operate more than 3,000 apartments that Neumann recently acquired, and that the company will likely add community features and provide the opportunity for renters to gain equity.
“The big open question here is whether this failed founder and the veneer of technology will actually do anything to help the housing crisis in the U.S. It’s notable that one of the main problems with U.S. housing is there’s not enough of it. While the issue there stems from exclusionary zoning, private equity’s mad dash to buy rental homes — like the thousands of apartments Neumann and friends gobbled up — is not making things better.”
Could commercial real estate be next in line for this type of tech-enabled business model?
